Sevilla crestSevillavsAM
Atlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridFinal 1–3·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Sevilla
- 32%
- Draw
- 29%
- Madrid
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.13
- xG away
- 1.26
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- BTTS
- 49%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageSpain · la-v1.1.0-elo
La Liga model performance
La Liga live sample (2026/27): 25 scored matches, favourite-correct 52%, exact score hits 3. Frozen walk-forward baseline: 1140 matches, log loss 0.9732, 1X2 accuracy 53%. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.
Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
Round ledgers: Round 1 · Round 2 · Round 3
La Liga historical prediction results
La Liga prediction results from Expected90. Live 2026/27: 25 scored matches. Walk-forward log loss 0.9732, 1X2 accuracy 53%. Filter by round. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. We still prefer log loss.
- Matches in view
- 25
- Favourite-correct
- 52%
- Game pick hit rate
- 44%
- Exact score hits
- 3
Sevilla crestSevillavsAMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid
Real Sociedad crestReal SociedadvsE
Espanyol crestEspanyolFinal 2–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Sociedad win
Hit- Sociedad
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Espanyol
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.38
- xG away
- 1.19
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Levante UD crestLevante UDvsRB
Real Betis crestReal BetisFinal 5–2·Predicted 1-2·Pick Real Betis win
Miss- UD
- 36%
- Draw
- 26%
- Betis
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.43
- xG away
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- BTTS
- 60%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésvsV
Villarreal crestVillarrealFinal 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Alavés
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Villarreal
- 35%
- xG home
- 1.24
- xG away
- 1.20
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Real Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubvsE
Elche crestElcheFinal 3–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Racing Club win
Hit- Club
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Elche
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.40
- xG away
- 1.05
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
FC Barcelona crestFC BarcelonavsAC
Athletic Club crestAthletic ClubFinal 2–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick FC Barcelona win
Hit- Barcelona
- 72%
- Draw
- 17%
- Club
- 10%
- xG home
- 2.39
- xG away
- 0.81
- Over 2.5
- 62%
- BTTS
- 51%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Celta Vigo crestCelta VigovsO
Osasuna crestOsasunaFinal 1–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Celta Vigo win
Miss- Vigo
- 46%
- Draw
- 27%
- Osasuna
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.51
- xG away
- 1.11
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Real Madrid crestReal MadridvsRSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadFinal 4–1·Predicted 3-1·Pick Real Madrid win
Hit- Madrid
- 77%
- Draw
- 15%
- Sociedad
- 8%
- xG home
- 2.65
- xG away
- 0.78
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Valencia crestValenciavsRBReal Betis crestReal BetisFinal 0–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Valencia win
Miss- Valencia
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Betis
- 33%
- xG home
- 1.40
- xG away
- 1.22
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Málaga CF crestMálaga CFvsDD
Deportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñaFinal 1–1·Predicted 1-0·Pick Málaga CF win
Miss- CF
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Coruña
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.32
- xG away
- 0.99
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- BTTS
- 46%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageOsasuna crestOsasunavsLLevante UD crestLevante UDFinal 0–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Osasuna win
Miss- Osasuna
- 44%
- Draw
- 27%
- UD
- 29%
- xG home
- 1.41
- xG away
- 1.10
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageElche crestElchevsBFC Barcelona crestFC BarcelonaFinal 0–5·Predicted 1-2·Pick FC Barcelona win
Hit- Elche
- 21%
- Draw
- 24%
- Barcelona
- 54%
- xG home
- 0.94
- xG away
- 1.65
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- BTTS
- 49%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Getafe crestGetafevsRRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubFinal 1–0·Predicted 1-1·Pick Under 2.5
Hit- Getafe
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- Club
- 30%
- xG home
- 1.04
- xG away
- 0.88
- Over 2.5
- 30%
- BTTS
- 38%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageAtlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridvsVVillarreal crestVillarrealFinal 2–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Atlético Madrid win
Miss- Madrid
- 41%
- Draw
- 26%
- Villarreal
- 33%
- xG home
- 1.41
- xG away
- 1.25
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- BTTS
- 54%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageEspanyol crestEspanyolvsRMReal Madrid crestReal MadridFinal 1–2·Predicted 1-2·Pick Real Madrid win
Hit- Espanyol
- 21%
- Draw
- 24%
- Madrid
- 55%
- xG home
- 0.95
- xG away
- 1.70
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageValencia crestValenciavsCVCelta Vigo crestCelta VigoFinal 0–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Valencia win
Miss- Valencia
- 48%
- Draw
- 27%
- Vigo
- 25%
- xG home
- 1.44
- xG away
- 0.95
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- BTTS
- 47%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageAthletic Club crestAthletic ClubvsSSevilla crestSevillaFinal 1–3·Predicted 2-1·Pick Athletic Club win
Miss- Club
- 49%
- Draw
- 26%
- Sevilla
- 25%
- xG home
- 1.47
- xG away
- 0.98
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- BTTS
- 48%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageReal Betis crestReal BetisvsRSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadFinal 1–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Real Betis win
Hit- Betis
- 56%
- Draw
- 24%
- Sociedad
- 21%
- xG home
- 1.74
- xG away
- 0.97
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- BTTS
- 51%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Rayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanovsDADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésFinal 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Rayo Vallecano win
Miss- Vallecano
- 51%
- Draw
- 26%
- Alavés
- 23%
- xG home
- 1.54
- xG away
- 0.94
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- BTTS
- 48%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageAtlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridvsMMálaga CF crestMálaga CFFinal 2–0·Predicted 2-0·Pick Atlético Madrid win
Hit- Madrid
- 68%
- Draw
- 19%
- CF
- 13%
- xG home
- 2.07
- xG away
- 0.76
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 47%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñavsEElche crestElcheFinal 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Over 2.5
Miss- Coruña
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Elche
- 26%
- xG home
- 2.16
- xG away
- 1.49
- Over 2.5
- 71%
- BTTS
- 69%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageEspanyol crestEspanyolvsLLevante UD crestLevante UDFinal 3–0·Predicted 2-1·Pick Espanyol win
Hit- Espanyol
- 41%
- Draw
- 27%
- UD
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.33
- xG away
- 1.13
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageReal Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubvsVVillarreal crestVillarrealFinal 2–2·Predicted 0-1·Pick Villarreal win
Miss- Club
- 25%
- Draw
- 28%
- Villarreal
- 47%
- xG home
- 0.88
- xG away
- 1.33
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- BTTS
- 43%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageSevilla crestSevillavsRVRayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanoFinal 2–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Sevilla
- 35%
- Draw
- 28%
- Vallecano
- 37%
- xG home
- 1.15
- xG away
- 1.19
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- BTTS
- 47%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageDeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésvsGGetafe crestGetafeFinal 3–0·Predicted 1-0·Pick Deportivo Alavés win
Hit- Alavés
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- Getafe
- 26%
- xG home
- 1.32
- xG away
- 0.92
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- BTTS
- 44%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageLa Liga performance questions
How accurate are La Liga predictions?
On 1140 walk-forward La Liga matches the frozen model recorded log loss 0.9732, RPS 0.1944 and favourite 1X2 accuracy 53%. Live rounds can look noisier.
Can I check La Liga results by round?
Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 1, 2, 3.
Are La Liga results betting tips?
No. This ledger scores published probabilities after kick-off. Misses stay visible.
la-v1.1.0-elo
La Liga
Validation
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
- Matches
- 1140
- Log loss
- 0.9732
- RPS
- 0.1944
- ECE
- 0.0260
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Frozen official baseline la-v1.1.0-elo. 0.5316 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize.
Live season 2026/27 · round 3
- Matches scored
- 25
- Log loss
- 0.9765
- RPS
- 0.1896
- 1X2 accuracy
- 52%
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.