Casa Pia crestCasa PiavsB
Benfica crestBenficaFinal 0–7·Benfica win 73%
Hit- Pia
- 8%
- Draw
- 19%
- Benfica
- 73%
- xG home
- 0.67
- xG away
- 2.30
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- BTTS
- 46%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match pagePortugal · v1.1.0-p1-elo · Round 2
Liga Portugal round 2 results
Liga Portugal round 2 has 8 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 63%; exact score hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Famalicão vs CS Marítimo; Académico Viseu FC vs Santa Clara; FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC
Liga Portugal reliability
Round 2 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 82 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0326
- Log loss
- 0.9354
- RPS
- 0.1839
- Walk-forward
- 909
- 1X2 accuracy
- 56%
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 45% | 174 | +8% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 44% | 263 | −1% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 55% | 194 | +0% |
| 60–70% | 65% | 71% | 122 | +6% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 71% | 82 | −4% |
| 80–90% | 85% | 87% | 63 | +3% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 11 | +8% |
Liga Portugal round 2 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 8
- Favourite-correct
- 63%
- Exact score hits
- 0
Previous: round 1All Liga Portugal resultsNext: round 3
Casa Pia crestCasa PiavsBBenfica crestBenfica
Famalicão crestFamalicãovsCM
CS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoFinal 1–2·Famalicão win 48%
Miss- Famalicão
- 48%
- Draw
- 29%
- Marítimo
- 22%
- xG home
- 1.58
- xG away
- 1.01
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- BTTS
- 53%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
FC Arouca crestFC AroucavsM
Moreirense crestMoreirenseFinal 4–0·FC Arouca win 50%
Hit- Arouca
- 50%
- Draw
- 30%
- Moreirense
- 20%
- xG home
- 1.54
- xG away
- 0.92
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- BTTS
- 49%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
CD Nacional crestCD NacionalvsEP
Estoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaFinal 2–0·CD Nacional win 41%
Hit- Nacional
- 41%
- Draw
- 31%
- Praia
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.38
- xG away
- 1.10
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- BTTS
- 52%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
Rio Ave crestRio AvevsP
FC Porto crestFC PortoFinal 0–2·FC Porto win 58%
Hit- Ave
- 15%
- Draw
- 27%
- Porto
- 58%
- xG home
- 0.79
- xG away
- 1.71
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- BTTS
- 46%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCvsSC
Santa Clara crestSanta ClaraFinal 0–1·Académico Viseu FC win 35%
Miss- FC
- 35%
- Draw
- 33%
- Clara
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.19
- xG away
- 1.13
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- BTTS
- 50%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
FC Alverca crestFC AlvercavsEA
CF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoraFinal 2–2·FC Alverca win 46%
Miss- Alverca
- 46%
- Draw
- 31%
- Amadora
- 23%
- xG home
- 1.42
- xG away
- 0.95
- Over 2.5
- 42%
- BTTS
- 49%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
Sporting CP crestSporting CPvsV
Vitória SC crestVitória SCFinal 3–2·Sporting CP win 72%
Hit- CP
- 72%
- Draw
- 19%
- SC
- 9%
- xG home
- 2.37
- xG away
- 0.75
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- BTTS
- 49%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match pageLiga Portugal round 2 questions
How did Expected90 do in Liga Portugal round 2?
8 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 63% and 0 exact scores hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Liga Portugal round 2 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Liga Portugal rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4.
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Liga Portugal
Live season 2026/27 · round 4
- Matches scored
- 28
- Log loss
- 0.8985
- RPS
- 0.1671
- Goal MAE
- 0.84
- 1X2 accuracy
- 54%
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.