Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCvsP
FC Porto crestFC PortoFinal 0–3·FC Porto win 73%
Hit- FC
- 8%
- Draw
- 19%
- Porto
- 73%
- xG home
- 0.69
- xG away
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- BTTS
- 46%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match pagePortugal · v1.1.0-p1-elo · Round 4
Liga Portugal round 4 results
Liga Portugal round 4 has 4 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 75%; exact score hits 1. Favourites that did not land: FC Alverca vs Santa Clara. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC
Liga Portugal reliability
Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 82 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0326
- Log loss
- 0.9354
- RPS
- 0.1839
- Walk-forward
- 909
- 1X2 accuracy
- 56%
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37% | 45% | 174 | +8% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 44% | 263 | −1% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 55% | 194 | +0% |
| 60–70% | 65% | 71% | 122 | +6% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 71% | 82 | −4% |
| 80–90% | 85% | 87% | 63 | +3% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 11 | +8% |
Liga Portugal round 4 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 4
- Favourite-correct
- 75%
- Exact score hits
- 1
Previous: round 3All Liga Portugal results
Académico Viseu FC crestAcadémico Viseu FCvsPFC Porto crestFC Porto
FC Alverca crestFC AlvercavsSC
Santa Clara crestSanta ClaraFinal 1–1·Santa Clara win 37%
Miss- Alverca
- 31%
- Draw
- 32%
- Clara
- 37%
- xG home
- 1.17
- xG away
- 1.29
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- BTTS
- 52%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
FC Arouca crestFC AroucavsCM
CS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoFinal 2–1·FC Arouca win 43%
Hit- Arouca
- 43%
- Draw
- 30%
- Marítimo
- 27%
- xG home
- 1.48
- xG away
- 1.14
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- BTTS
- 55%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match page
Rio Ave crestRio AvevsSC
Sporting CP crestSporting CPFinal 0–4·Sporting CP win 64%
Hit- Ave
- 12%
- Draw
- 23%
- CP
- 64%
- xG home
- 0.81
- xG away
- 2.04
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 50%
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Match pageLiga Portugal round 4 questions
How did Expected90 do in Liga Portugal round 4?
4 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 75% and 1 exact scores hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Liga Portugal round 4 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Liga Portugal rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4.
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Liga Portugal
Live season 2026/27 · round 4
- Matches scored
- 28
- Log loss
- 0.8985
- RPS
- 0.1671
- Goal MAE
- 0.84
- 1X2 accuracy
- 54%
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.