Spain · la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga predictions

Match-by-match La Liga forecasts from a Dixon-Coles goals model with Elo features. Frozen baseline la-v1.1.0-elo; every published number is stored before kick-off.

10 upcoming La Liga forecasts in the ledger, covering rounds 3–6. Looking for La Liga predictions today? See today’s fixtures · La Liga Elo table. Historical forecasts stay on this hub so every published number remains crawlable.

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Round 35 matches

La Liga · Round 3Sun 30 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon

Strong favourite

Real Madrid win91%

Open game

Madrid: 91%
Draw: 7%
CF: 3%

xG home: 3.72
xG away: 0.60
Over 2.5: 81%
BTTS: 44%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Sun 30 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

Deportivo de A CoruñavsV

Balanced

Valencia win40%

Open game · Both likely

Coruña: 36%
Draw: 24%
Valencia: 40%

xG home: 1.60
xG away: 1.71
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 66%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Sun 30 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win48%

Vigo: 48%
Draw: 28%
Club: 25%

xG home: 1.45
xG away: 0.97
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Mon 31 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

Slight lean

Osasuna win47%

Osasuna: 47%
Draw: 30%
Getafe: 24%

xG home: 1.31
xG away: 0.86
Over 2.5: 37%
BTTS: 43%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Mon 31 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

FC BarcelonavsRV

Strong favourite

FC Barcelona win71%

Open game

Barcelona: 71%
Draw: 18%
Vallecano: 11%

xG home: 2.34
xG away: 0.80
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Round 44 matches

La Liga · Round 4Fri 4 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Slight lean

Real Madrid win49%

Betis: 25%
Draw: 25%
Madrid: 49%

xG home: 1.13
xG away: 1.66
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 55%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 4Sat 5 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon

Athletic ClubvsAM

Atlético Madrid

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win43%

Club: 29%
Draw: 28%
Madrid: 43%

xG home: 1.07
xG away: 1.38
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 4Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Rayo VallecanovsRR

Real Racing Club

Clear lean

Rayo Vallecano win56%

Vallecano: 56%
Draw: 25%
Club: 20%

xG home: 1.76
xG away: 0.96
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 4Sat 5 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Deportivo de A Coruña

Strong favourite

Villarreal win71%

Villarreal: 71%
Draw: 19%
Coruña: 10%

xG home: 2.21
xG away: 0.70
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 45%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Round 61 match

La Liga · Round 6Thu 3 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Real SociedadvsCV

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win39%

Sociedad: 39%
Draw: 29%
Vigo: 32%

xG home: 1.25
xG away: 1.10
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 48%

la-v1.1.0-elo

Historical predictions

La Liga · Round 3Sat 29 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Atlético Madrid

Final 1–3·Atlético Madrid win 39%

Hit

Sevilla: 32%
Draw: 29%
Madrid: 39%

xG home: 1.13
xG away: 1.26
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 49%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Sat 29 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Real SociedadvsE

Final 2–1·Real Sociedad win 41%

Hit

Sociedad: 41%
Draw: 28%
Espanyol: 32%

xG home: 1.38
xG away: 1.19
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 53%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Sat 29 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon

Final 5–2·Real Betis win 39%

Miss

UD: 36%
Draw: 26%
Betis: 39%

xG home: 1.43
xG away: 1.50
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 60%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Fri 28 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Deportivo AlavésvsV

Final 1–0·Deportivo Alavés win 37%

Hit

Alavés: 37%
Draw: 29%
Villarreal: 35%

xG home: 1.24
xG away: 1.20
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 3Fri 28 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon

Real Racing ClubvsE

Final 3–2·Real Racing Club win 44%

Hit

Club: 44%
Draw: 28%
Elche: 28%

xG home: 1.40
xG away: 1.05
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 1Thu 27 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

FC BarcelonavsAC

Final 2–0·FC Barcelona win 72%

Hit

Barcelona: 72%
Draw: 17%
Club: 10%

xG home: 2.39
xG away: 0.81
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 1Thu 27 Aug, 19:30 Lisbon

Final 1–2·Celta Vigo win 46%

Miss

Vigo: 46%
Draw: 27%
Osasuna: 28%

xG home: 1.51
xG away: 1.11
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 1Wed 26 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Real MadridvsRS

Final 4–1·Real Madrid win 77%

Hit

Madrid: 77%
Draw: 15%
Sociedad: 8%

xG home: 2.65
xG away: 0.78
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 1Tue 25 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Final 0–1·Valencia win 41%

Miss

Valencia: 41%
Draw: 26%
Betis: 33%

xG home: 1.40
xG away: 1.22
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 53%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 2Mon 24 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Deportivo de A Coruña

Final 1–1·Málaga CF win 44%

Miss

CF: 44%
Draw: 28%
Coruña: 28%

xG home: 1.32
xG away: 0.99
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 2Mon 24 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon

Final 0–0·Osasuna win 44%

Miss

Osasuna: 44%
Draw: 27%
UD: 29%

xG home: 1.41
xG away: 1.10
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga · Round 2Sun 23 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Final 0–5·FC Barcelona win 54%

Hit

Elche: 21%
Draw: 24%
Barcelona: 54%

xG home: 0.94
xG away: 1.65
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 49%

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga prediction questions

Where can I find La Liga predictions today?

Upcoming La Liga fixtures are listed first on this hub, with a dedicated today view at /football-predictions/today. Each match has its own URL with xG, 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS.

How does Expected90 predict La Liga matches?

La Liga forecasts use expected goals as Poisson means, a Dixon-Coles adjustment for low scores, and Elo team strength. Home/draw/away, Over 2.5 and BTTS are summed from one score grid.

Are La Liga predictions betting tips?

No. These are probabilities, timestamped before kick-off. Misses stay on the page. There is no odds CTA.

Can I check yesterday’s La Liga prediction?

Yes. Historical forecasts remain on this hub and on each match URL, with the original probabilities and the final score.